ECONOMIC DATA OF THE DAY

Time	CY	Indicator	Forecast	Previous
07:50	JPY	GDP SA YoY	0.20%	0.50%
12:30	JPY	Industrial Production MoM	N/A	1.90%

(Source: FabTrader)

OVERNIGHT NEWS

• OLYMPICS: 
• Joseph Schooling became the first-ever Singapore Olympic Gold medallist after winning and beating the Olympic Record of the 100m Fly. His time was 50.39 sec. He beat his long time idol Michael Phelps who finished 2nd with Chad Le Clos and Lazlo Cseh.
• On behalf of Saxobank Singapore, we would like to congratulate Schooling for his great achievement, Singapore for believing in making great achievements in Sports and pushing the next generation (my sons included) to get more Gold Medals in the Olympics.
• US: 
• Retail Sales were worse than expected at 0.0% MoM and -0.3% Ex Autos and Gas. Relatively strong sales at auto dealers and non-store retailers were cancelled out by weakness just about everywhere else. Sales at auto and parts dealers jumped 1.1%. Non-store - predominantly on-line - retailers leapt 1.3%. Department store sales dropped 0.5%. Sales at gasoline stations slumped 2.7%
• The PPI declined a seasonally adjusted 0.4% MoM (Exp. +0.1%), the largest one-month fall since September 2015. Core producer prices fell 0.3% (Mkt est: +0.2%). Much of the headline drop was in typically volatile categories such as trade services and energy
• The University of Michigan said its index of consumer sentiment climbed to 90.4 (Mkt est: 91.5) from 90 in July. The current economic conditions index fell to 106.1 from 109 but the index of expectations jumped to 80.3 from 77.8
• CHINA: 
• PBOC Chief Economist Ma Jun concurred, to some extent. China does need to lower corporate debt leverage by eliminating zombie companies and improve budget controls at state firms and local governments, he said. But slowing growth in the nation’s money supply hasn’t affected the economy and fundamentals support a stable yuan, he said, citing steady forex reserves as a sign the exchange rate is near equilibrium.
• The IMF said 19 trillion yuan ($2.9 trillion) of Chinese “shadow” credit products are high-risk compared with corporate loans and highlighted the danger that defaults could lead to liquidity shocks. The commentary highlighted the potential for risks bigger to the nation’s financial stability than from companies’ loan defaults.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE (INDICATIVE RATES)

Currency	Last	% Change	Overnight Range
DXY	95.75	-0.19%	95.254 – 95.994
EURUSD	1.1163	0.22%	1.1131 – 1.1221
USDJPY	101.35	-0.54%	100.83 - 102.27
AUDUSD	0.7655	-0.47%	0.7646 – 0.7725
GBPUSD	1.2907	-0.36%	1.2904 - 1.3035

(Source: FabTrader)

Commodities (INDICATIVE RATES)

Currency	Price USD	% Change	Overnight Range
Gold	1338.91	0.17%	1333.37 - 1356.29
Silver	19.81	1.37%	19.6565 - 20.223
Oil (BRENT)	47.07	1.97%	45.74 - 47.25
Oil (WTI)	44.58	2.01%	43.31 - 44.78

(Source: Bloomberg and Saxo)

COMMODITIES

Precious Metals: Both gold and silver are hovering around the 1330 and 20 dollar support level. Demand of the precious went weaker after stronger data posted from the US.

Oil: Crude oil as speculation of potential production freezes by OPEC picked up pace. Saudi Arabia signalled that it is prepared to discuss stabilising the markets at informal OPEC discussions next month. This was despite another strong rise in drilling activity in the US. Baker Hughes data showed the number of rigs operating in the US rose by 15 last week to 396.

FOREX NEWS

• USD sold off after the poor US Retail Sales but managed to rally back slightly before the close.
• The main movers in the G10 space were EUR with a spike above 1.1200. The main resistance is at the 100d MA at 1.1230.  USDJPY remain offered with a Head & Shoulder formation which started on June 24th and a base at 100.50.
• NZDUSD completely erased the rally following the RBNZ cut yesterday and the series of stops following the market disappointment. AUDNZD is now trading in a volatile fashion at the top of the range close to the 100d MA.
• GBPUSD remained well offered after the Sunday Times reported that the UK could remain in the EU until the end of 2019, about a year longer than predicted. New departments set up to handle the transition won’t be ready to act should PM Theresa May invoke Article 50 in January, and some ministers said that the situation is “chaotic."    
• In Emerging Markets, USDBRL rallied almost 2% after President Temer said he was worried with the BRL rally. The monetary authority offered 15,000 of reverse currency swaps, equivalent to buying $750 million in the futures market, maintaining an accelerated pace of intervention that it set on Thursday. It previously offered $500 million in daily auctions.

Dollar on defensive after downbeat US data , unfazed by weak Japan GDP

FOREX-TOKYO, Aug 15 The dollar was on the defensive early on Monday, weighed by downbeat U.S. data that tempered expectations of a near-term interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

The greenback was little changed at 101.370 yen after losing 0.6 percent on Friday, when the U.S. indicators were released. The euro was steady at $1.1161 after edging up 0.2 percent on Friday.

The dollar index was effectively unchanged at 95.755 after going to as low as 95.254 on Friday, its lowest since August 3.

The dollar came under pressure after Treasury yields slid sharply in response to weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales and producer prices data released on Friday.

Already slim expectations for a U.S. interest rate increase in September were trimmed even further after the data, while prospects for a rate hike in December also took a knock.

Federal funds futures implied traders saw a 43 percent chance the U.S. central bank would increase interest rates at its December policy meeting, down from 47 percent shortly before the release of Friday's data.

"The dollar's push lower that we anticipate until later in the month gained momentum following the disappointing U.S. retail sales report before the weekend," wrote Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

"The dollar's technical tone has deteriorated, while economic data is unlikely to be sufficient to reverse sentiment."

U.S. economic data due this week include Tuesday's housing starts, consumer price index and industrial output and the Philadelphia Fed's business sentiment index on Thursday.
Read More at www.reuters.com