ECONOMIC DATA OF THE DAY

Time	CY	Indicator	Forecast	Actual	Previous
09:30	AU	GDP SA QoQ	0.60%	n/a	1.10%
14:00	GE	Industrial Production SA MoM	0.10%	n/a	0.80%
14:00	GE	Industrial Production WDA YoY	0.20%	n/a	0.50%
16:30	UK	Industrial Production MoM	-0.20%	n/a	0.10%
16:30	UK	Manufacturing Production MoM	-0.30%	n/a	-0.30%
19:00	US	MBA Mortgage Applications	n/a	n/a	2.80%
22:00	CA	Bank of Canada Rate Decision	0.50%	n/a	0.50%

(Source: FabTrader)

SPEECHES

• 09:15 – USD – Feb’s Williams speaks on Economic Outlook in Reno Nevada
• 21:15 – GBP – BOE’s Carney, Cunliffe, Forbes, McCafferty speak in London

OVERNIGHT NEWS

• US: 
• Feds labour market conditions index declines in August by -0.7%, which may give some Fed officials pause past the weaker than expected NFP data last week. 
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing data ha d sharp fall to 51.4 from 55.5 last month, well below 54.9 expectations. This saw USD tumble post release, treasury yields lower and September hike probabilities paired. 
• EUROPE: 
• Europe GDP came in line with expectations and prior at 1.6% y/y.
• German Retail PMIs improved further to 54.1 up from 52.0. However, factory orders declined y/y by -0.7%, below expectations.
• The rest of European retail PMIs showed strength with the exception of Italy which was a notable outlier at 43.2 firmly in contractionary territory but up from prior month.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE (INDICATIVE RATES)

Currency	Last	% Change	Overnight Range
DXY	94.82	-1.07%	94.77 – 95.86
EURUSD	1.1255	0.97%	1.1141 – 1.1263
USDJPY	102.02	-1.36%	101.93 - 103.81
AUDUSD	0.7687	1.38%	0.7581 – 0.7688
GBPUSD	1.3440	1.02%	1.3297 - 1.3445

(Source: FabTrader)

COMMODITIES (INDICATIVE RATES)

Currency	Price USD	% Change	Overnight Range
Gold	1350.00	1.73%	1325.02 - 1352.66
Silver	20.06	2.79%	19.47 - 20.13
Oil (BRENT)	47.26	-0.78%	46.29 - 47.99
Oil (WTI)	44.83	0.88%	43.84 - 46.53

(Source: Bloomberg and Saxo)

COMMODITIES

Precious Metals: Gold leapt to the highest level in three weeks and closed above 1350, as week ISM data from US shed the probability of rate hike in two weeks. Gold and platinum are furthered supported by stronger Rand would drive up production cost. Gold is expected to strengthen further and 1350 serving as a good support level. 

Oil: Oct WTI oil contract shed most of its gains and closed with minor rise, amid skepticism on production freeze accord between Saudi and Russia, and partially influenced by weaker dollar. Overall fundamentals still suggest oversupply, even with current production as producers have been running to their caps. Oct contract is looking to test 200MA today at 44.30, which level should provide some support in the short term.

FOREX NEWS

• USD thumped across the board post the weak US data, USDJPY traded to a low of 102 in the US session and that selling pressure continues through into the Asian morning trading below 101.5. The selling was broad-based with all currencies trading stronger against the USD. 
• Emerging Markets tracked the USD moves with strong performance across the board. Carry trades remain the best performers as investors continue to seek out yield. 

 

Emerging Markets Rally as Fed Rate-Hike Bets Pulled; Won Surges

Emerging-market stocks and currencies rallied after a slew of weak U.S. economic data quelled speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month. European equities held near an eight-month high.
An MSCI gauge of shares in developing nations and South Korea’s won climbed to their highest levels in more than a year. A strengthening yen weighed on shares in Japan after a media report cast doubt on the central bank’s willingness to boost stimulus. Australia’s dollar snapped a five-day winning streak after economic growth missed estimates. Gold traded near a two-week high, while bonds rallied across most of Asia following gains in U.S. Treasuries.
Read More at bloomberg.com