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Daily Market Update 19th October 2016



Time CY Indicator Forecast Actual Previous
10:00 CH GDP YoY 6.70% -- 6.70%
10:00 CH Industrial Production YoY 6.40% -- 6.30%
10:00 CH Retail Sales YoY 10.70% -- 10.60%
16:30 UK Jobless Claims Change 3.2k -- 2.4k
20:30 US Housing Starts 1175k -- 1142k
20:30 US Building Permits 1165k -- 1139k
22:00 CA Bank of Canada Rate Decision 0.50% -- 0.50%
(Source: FabTrader)


  • 20:45 - USD - FED’s Williams speaks in New Jersey
  • 21:15 - GBP - UK Chancellor Hammond testifies to the treasury committee
  • 23:15 - CAD - BoC’s Poloz holds a press conference post the BOC decision due today.


  • US Inflation came in broadly in line with expectations showing a reasonably robust inflation picture with headline at a 23 month high at 1.5% and core printing at 2.2%, slightly below expectations.
  •  Inflation data in the UK showed a greater than expected increase as base effects of the weaker GBP appear to be showing. The strong set of data yesterday will create much debate as the BOE’s next move. The Brexit shock has not, as yet, reflected itself in much weaker economic data in part because of the GBP move acting as a shock absorber. The question the BOE now faces is whether to ease further, throwing the GBP further under the bus and risking inflation overshooting.


Currency Last % Change Overnight Range
DXY 97.90 0.01 97.61 - 97.96
EURUSD 1.0981 -0.17 1.0970 - 1.1026
USDJPY 103.87 -0.02 103.68 - 104.20
AUDUSD 0.7666 0.49 0.7625 - 0.7690
GBPUSD 1.2298 0.94 1.2179 - 1.2325
(Source: FabTrader)


Currency Price USD % Change Overnight Range
Gold 1262.50 0.53 1244.17 - 1264.77
Silver 17.62 0.86 17.45 - 17.71
Oil (BRENT) 51.68 0.31 51.25 - 52.15
Oil (WTI) 50.29 0.70 49.76 - 50.78
(Source: Bloomberg and Saxo)


Precious Metals: Gold prices climbed second consecutive day in almost a month, after consolidating around support $1,250 after breaking key $1,300. Gold ETF holdings +0.1% to 2,052.8mt as investors poured $605 million over the past week into funds, keeping holdings in gold ETFs highest since 2013.

Oil: WTI prices rose and hovered around $50 as API said to report U.S. crude inventories fell 3.8m bbl last week and OPEC reiterated its confidence Russia will cooperate with an agreement to trim supply. On WTI charts, resistance around $51.70 awaits to be broken before we see any upside ahead.


    • U.S. stocks closed higher as stronger-than-expected quarterly results from a roster of companies brought confidence broadly. The S&P 500 index finished up 13.10 points to 2,139.60, with all main sectors in green.
    • Goldman Sachs shares closed up 2.2% after the investment bank reported a strong rebound with quarterly earnings rose 47%, thanks to a rebound in trading revenues.
    • Netflix surged and closed up 19% after results blew past Wall Street expectations with larger-than-expected increase in new additions. The streaming company’s shares recorded their largest daily increase since July 31, 2015.
    • A broad-based rally pushed European stocks to the biggest advance in almost a month on optimism monetary policy will remain supportive of growth. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 1.5 percent at the close. The FTSE 100  popped up 0.8% to close at 7,000.06.
    • Burberry Group PLC tumbled 7.2 percent after its wholesale revenue declined more than expected in the first half of the year.
Dollar Holds Two-Day Drop as U.S. Inflation Data Damp Fed Wagers
  • ‘Some of the bullishness in the dollar has faded’: Mizuho
  • Traders reduce wagers for a U.S. rate increase this year

The dollar held a two-day decline after a core U.S. inflation gauge rose less than forecast in September, prompting traders to reduce bets the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

The currency has weakened against all of its 16 major counterparts this week as futures pricing indicates a gradual pace of interest-rate increases by the U.S. central bank amid mixed signals from the world’s largest economy. The greenback has dropped the most versus peers of commodity-exporting countries since Oct. 14, with those of Australia and New Zealand pacing gains Wednesday ahead of economic growth and output data from China, their biggest trading partner. 

Read the full article at bloomberg.com

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