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Daily Market Update 21st November 2016



Time CY Indicator Forecast Actual Previous
07:50 JN Trade Balance ¥610.0b ¥496.2b ¥498.3b
10:30 TH GDP YoY 3.40% -- 3.50%
12:30 JN All Industry Activity Index MoM 0.00% -- 0.20%
16:00 TA Export Orders YoY 3.70% -- 3.90%
(Source: FabTrader)


  • 09:30 – JN - BOJ Masai makes a speech in Saitama-city
  • 15:30 – EC - Bank of Portugal's Costa Speaks at Conference on Economy
  • 20:30 – SP - Bank of Spain, Bank of France Governors Speak in Madrid
  • 21:00 – US - Fed's Fischer Speaks in New York

  • The USD finished the week on firm footing continuing the post Trump election trend as USTs continued to sell off. US stocks ended the week softer. The DXY ended the week well above the key 100 level at 101.4, levels not seen since 2003.
  • Continued strength in the USD wreaked havoc in emerging markets as portfolio outflows and sentiment continued to apply heavy pressure on all EM asset classes.
  • A very light data calendar ahead this week, and Thanksgiving holiday this coming Thursday.  Take note of all holiday trading hours HERE
  • German PPI data on Friday, while still negative y/y showed an upside surprise versus expectations at -0.4% vs -0.9%.
  • The Euro traded particularly heavy last week, shedding 2.5% versus the USD. With the ratcheting up of the political agenda ahead –Italian referendum on 4 December and German, French and Dutch elections  next year – Euro should remain under pressure.
  • UK Chancellor Hammond will deliver his Autumn budget on Thursday.


Currency Last % Change Overnight Range
DXY 101.42 0.32 100.83 - 101.48
EURUSD 1.0582 -0.36 1.0569 - 1.0643
USDJPY 110.95 0.72 109.80 - 110.85
AUDUSD 0.7324 -0.92 0.7330 - 0.7418
GBPUSD 1.2324 -0.60 1.2302 - 1.2436
(Source: FabTrader)


Currency Price USD % Change Overnight Range
Gold 1207.89 -0.70 1202.96 - 1217.94
Silver 16.57 -0.65 16.45 - 16.76
Oil (BRENT) 46.86 0.80 45.75 - 46.99
Oil (WTI) 45.69 0.59 44.55 - 45.77
(Source: Bloomberg and Saxo)


Precious Metals: Gold continued its decline last week and closed below 1210 while silver broke below 17. Both XAUUSD and XAGUSD weekly chart is now resting at their 100 days moving average support at 1206 and 16.4 respectively.  A break at this level may see gold and silver next price support at 1175 and 15.8 respectively.

Oil: Oil closed positively for the first time in 4 weeks and hopes of a deal by end month, 30th Nov in Vienna is lifted by Iran's oil minister who is optimistic of a deal. Oil also posted its best weekly gains in 8 weeks. In US, the number of operating continues to increase by 19 to 471.


    • U.S. stocks retreated marginally below their all-time highs amid signs of almost post-election profit taking and following a string of largely disappointing updates from the retail sector. VIX gauge sank 3.8%, to 12.85.
    • Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (-13.8%) reported a Q3 profit of $7.9mln, or $0.12 per share (est: $0.20) from $41.9mln, or $0.60 per share a year ago, citing soft sales at tourist and flagship locations, weak traffic patterns, and underperformance in seasonal categories.  Total revenue dropped 6.5% and same-store sales slumped 6% to fall for a third successive quarter.
    • Gap Inc. (-16.7%) reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $0.60 (est: $0.59-$0.60) from $0.63 a year ago and sales declined 2% to $3.8bln (est: $3.8bln). Same-store sales at the Gap brand and Banana Republic stores dived 8%, while Old Navy grew 3%.

U.S. Stocks Slip From Near Records Amid Bets on Trump Stimulus

  • Salesforce, Ross Stores rise, Gap declines amid results
  • Russell 2000 adds to rally, rises 11th day for record close

Most U.S. stocks slipped after a post-election rally took benchmark gauges to record levels on speculation that interest rates will rise amid expectations for brisker economic growth.

The S&P 500 Index fell 0.2 percent to 2,182 at 4 p.m. in New York, after climbing within two points of its Aug. 15 record of 2,190.15. The gauge rose 0.8 percent in the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average pared its weekly gain to 0.1 percent, while the Russell 2000 Index added to its all-time high, capping an 11-day rally that’s the longest in 13 years. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose to its first all-time high since September before ending lower.

Read the full article at bloomberg.com

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